Establishing a Causal Linkage between Weather Elements, Air Pollution and Airborne Pollen for Islamabad, using a Data Science Approach

Research Question:What are the environmental factors affecting shedding of pollens of Paper mulberry trees, evaluating the eDPSEEA model. Background:Global increase in chronic respiratory diseases in urban areas is attributed, among other factors, to meteorological events, air pollutants and airborne pollen. There is a significant increase in people suffering from seasonal pollen induced asthma in Islamabad. This entails the need for an early warning system to detect the onset of seasonal asthma to help patients, physicians and other stakeholders, to take preventive steps in advance.The abundance of allergenic plant species such as paper mulberry (Broussenetia papyrifera) and hemp (Cannabis sativa), contributes to seasonal asthma. The production of pollens is influenced by many meteorological factors like temperature, wind, rainfall, relative humidity and air pollution etc. Temperature and moisture are considered to contribute most significantly to the release of the paper mulberry pollen. Methodology:These effects are proposed to be studied from two aspects:To evaluate the role of meteorological (environmental) factors, airborne pollen and air pollutants in inducing risk of asthma attacks.To propose an algorithm that predicts the start, peak and end of main pollen season especially focusing on the paper mulberry pollen in Islamabad from historical pollen and weather data. Our algorithm will use sophisticated data science methods while utilizing available knowledge about the phenological phases of the species and thermal-requirement-based modelling[1] of other allergenic plants. Questions to Discuss:To formulate graphical causal models to explain the relation between the concentration of various airborne particles and weather variables, and help to evaluate the eDPSEEA (ecosystems-enriched Drivers, Pressures, State, Exposure, Effects, Actions) framework models. Declaration of Interest This research is funded by a grant from RESPIRE, University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, UK. References and Clinical Trial Registry Information [1] Picornell, A., Buters, J., Rojo, J., Traidl-Hoffmann, C., Menzel, A., Bergmann, K. C., & Oteros, J. (2019). Predicting the start, peak and end of the Betula pollen season in Bavaria, Germany. Science of The Total Environment, 690, 1299-1309.